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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maddy shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro selections, head here,
The Miami Dolphins played for their division instead of playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed to avoid the sixth seed this week.
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills stand in his way.
The Bills-Dolphins will face off Sunday night in the NFL’s final regular season game for the AFC East title.
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The Dolphins (11–5) had a chance to clinch a first-round bye and hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but were defeated by Baltimore 56–19. If they beat Buffalo, they will clinch the No. 2 seed.
The Bills (10-6) will move up to the two seed with a win. If they lose, they will finish sixth, seventh, or miss the playoffs altogether.
Miami is 1-4 against winning teams. A dynamic offense led by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill could not get going against the Ravens. He needs to get back on track against Buffalo.
The Bills defeated the Dolphins 48–20 in Week 4. That said, they are 3-point favorites on the road FanDuel Sportsbook,
Pro picks lean toward playoff-tested Bills.
New York Giants at Philadelphia
The free-falling Eagles (11-5) have lost four of five and now need one win plus Dallas to win the division. The Giants (5-11) were almost ready to win in Philly on Christmas.
The winner receives at least one wild-card spot and will win the AFC South if the Jaguars lose. The Colts defeated the Texans 31–20 in Week 3 behind Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew, who stepped in after the rookie starter was injured.
Upset Special: Colts 24-23
Line: Steelers minus 3 1/2
The Steelers (9-7) are fighting for a playoff spot and remain with Mason Rudolph at quarterback after two consecutive impressive games. The Ravens (13-3) have locked up the No. 1 seed and are trying to avoid injuries.
If the Buccaneers lose to Carolina, the winner will capture the NFC South. The Saints (8-8) kept their hopes alive with an impressive win in Tampa. The Falcons (7-9) have lost three of four.
The Bengals (8-8) are playing for a winning record. The Browns (11-5) have already locked up the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
Jacksonville in Tennessee
Line: Jaguar Minus 5 1/2
A four-game losing streak after an 8-3 start forced the Jaguars (9-7) to win a game to clinch the AFC South for the second consecutive time. CJ Beathard replaced Trevor Lawrence to lead them to a 26-0 win last week. The Titans (5-11) aim to play the spoiler game.
Line: Buccaneers Minus 5 1/2
The explosive Baker Mayfield gets a second chance to lead the Buccaneers (8-8) to an NFC South title. The depleted Panthers (2-14) were embarrassed on and off the field as owner David Tepper was fined $300,000 for throwing drinks at Jaguars fans at the end of last week’s loss.
New York Jets in New England
Line: Patriots minus 2 1/2
If the Patriots (4-12) beat the Jets (6-10), it could be Bill Belichick’s last game after unprecedented success, including six Super Bowl titles.
The Vikings (7-9) need a win and plenty of help to reach the playoffs. The Lions (11-5) can tie the franchise record of 12 wins in a season. They will be the NFC’s No. 2 or 3 seed.
A win seals the playoff berth for Jordan Love and the Packers (8-8). The Bears (7-9) have won four of five and face a key offseason decision on Justin Fields.
Row: Cowboys Minus 13 1/2
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys (11-5) need a win to clinch the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed. Commander (4-12) will spoil his opponent’s hopes by pulling off an upset.
Line: Seahawks minus 2 1/2
After losing five of seven, the Seahawks (8-8) now need a win and a loss against the Packers to reach the playoffs. The Cardinals (4-12) ruined Philadelphia’s division hopes last week and aim to spoil Seattle’s season.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
The 49ers (12-4) have clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Rams (9-7) will be either a No. 6 or 7 seed. Staying healthy is a priority for both teams so expect to see plenty of backups.
Line: Raiders Minus 2 1/2
The Broncos (8-8) aim to finish with a winning record in a difficult offseason that starts with the way Russell Wilson handles the situation. Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce gets another chance to prove he deserves the job after going 4-4 in his first eight games.
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes and several starters for the Chiefs (10-6) could rest easy with the AFC West title already secured. It’s better for the Chargers (5-11) to lose for draft positioning.
Last week: Straight up: 11-5. Against the spread: 10-6
Overall: Straight Up: 157-99. Against the spread: 133-113-9.
Best Bets: Straight Up: 9-8. Against the spread: 6-10-1.
Upset Special: Straight Up: 8-9. Against the spread: 10-7.
Thursday: Straight Up: 13-6. Against the spread: 14-4-1.
Monday: Straight Up: 9-12. Against the spread: 13-7-1.
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